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☆ Bad news for the economy is good news for the stock market ... as long as it doesn't get too bad
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 02, 2023 in New York City. Friday's market reaction to the jobs report comes down to a simple premise: bad news is good news, as long as it isn't too bad. Slow, controlled growth is something the markets and the Fed are seeking in the current climate, negative growth is not. Despite market pricing, it seems like cuts aren't around the corner if recent statements from Fed officials are any indication. You could imagine a scenario where inflation is starting to settle and you want to lower real rates.

Persons: Stocks, nonfarm, Mike Loewengart, We've, Michael Arone, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment, Markets, Traders, Group, State Street Global Advisors, Richmond Fed, CNBC PRO Locations: New York City

☆ Wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in September, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in September, indicating simmering inflation pressures for the U.S. economy. Inflation pressures came primarily from final demand goods, which surged 0.9% on the month, while services increased 0.3%. Much of the goods prices increase came from gasoline, which jumped 5.4%, while food prices posted a 0.9% gain. Energy prices broadly rose 3.3%. On the services side, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation and warehousing rose 0.3%, while final demand trade services costs increased 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Mike Loewengart Organizations: Dow, Labor Department, PPI, Energy, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: U.S

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher Friday after China reported that its slowing economy showed signs of stabilizing in August. That is seen as a sign the economy may be breaking out of its post-pandemic malaise. “The Arm IPO optimism and China’s further stimulus measures boosted sentiment across Asian stock markets,” Tina Teng, a markets analyst at CMC Markets APAC & Canada, said in a commentary. A third report said prices getting paid at the wholesale level rose more last month than economists expected. Ignoring those and other particularly volatile prices, underlying inflation trends in Thursday’s report were closer to economists’ expectations.

Persons: Hang Seng, “, Australia's, Tina Teng, they’re, Mike Loewengart, ” Organizations: TOKYO, China, People's Bank of, Nikkei, SoftBank Group Corp, Arm Holdings, Nasdaq, CMC, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, CME Group, Morgan Stanley Global Investment, Brent, U.S . Locations: Shanghai, People's Bank of China, Tokyo, Canada, U.S

☆ Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending held up well in July as inflation slowed, with retail sales turning in a stronger-than-expected showing for the month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding autos, sales rose a robust 1%, also against a 0.4% forecast. Gas station sales rose just 0.4% on the month despite rising prices at the pump. On a 12-month basis, sales rose 3.2%, which is exactly in line with the annual increase in the CPI.

Persons: Dow Jones, Mike Loewengart, Jim Baird, Plante Organizations: Commerce Department, Gas, Federal, Fed, Morgan Stanley Global Investment, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Export, Consumers, Financial Advisors, Empire, Manufacturing Survey Locations: U.S, New York

So far the signs of revival has not translated into strong investment banking revenue, but markets see a better outlook. Goldman took $1.4 billion in writedowns in the second quarter tied to its consumer businesses and real estate investments. In discussing their earnings, Wall Street executives cited a flurry of initial public offerings as an encouraging sign that activity in capital markets will pick up after months in the doldrums. The lender was buoyed by a slight pickup in equity capital markets and a focus on its middle-market business. At Citigroup (C.N), CEO Jane Fraser warned on Friday that "the long-awaited rebound in investment banking has yet to materialize."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Brendan McDermid, dealmaking, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, ”, Rick Meckler, Goldman, Meckler, Mike Loewengart, David Solomon, Sharon Yeshaya, Alastair Borthwick, Jane Fraser, Mark Mason, Jeremy Barnum, Tatiana Bautzer, Sinead Carew, Saeed Azhar, Noor Zainab Hussain, Lananh Nguyen, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Cherry Lane Investments, Wall Street, Morgan, Reuters, Bank of America's, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New Vernon , New Jersey, writedowns, New York, Bengaluru

The S&P 500 banking index (.SPXBK) added 1.5%, but was still down 1.8% this year in the aftermath of a banking crisis that took down three lenders and pummeled the regional banking sector. The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) has notched a 19.2% gain in the same period. Elevance Health (ELV.N) advanced 5.1% and was among top gainers on the S&P 500 after the health insurer forecast an upbeat annual profit. Halliburton(HAL.N) shed 2.8% after posting disappointing quarterly revenue, while Baker Hughes(BKR.O) edged up 0.5% after beating quarterly earnings expectations. The S&P index recorded 36 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 117 new highs and 42 new lows.

Persons: Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Mike Loewengart, Dow, Baker Hughes, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Maju Samuel Organizations: T Bank, Dow, Nasdaq, Big, Morgan Stanley Global Investment, Citizens, U.S, U.S . Federal, US Bancorp, Dow Jones, Netflix, IBM, Verizon, Elevance, Halliburton, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Big U.S, U.S ., Minneapolis, Bengaluru

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets fall on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Markets had widely anticipated, and priced in, 25 basis-point interest rate hikes for the Fed's next two meetings. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets drop on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

James Bullard, president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, in Moran, Wyoming, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2019. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ October jobs report: Employers keep hiring, but unemployment rises
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report shows employers added 261,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in September. The unemployment rate is calculated using a separate survey of households rather than the employer survey used to count workers on the job. The higher-than-expected unemployment rate is also still low by historical standards — September’s 3.5% reading matched a half-century low. “Obviously, 261,000 jobs is great,” he told CNN in an interview Friday morning after the jobs report. But he acknowledged that even with the strong labor market, it’s high prices, not jobs, on the minds of most Americans.

☆ Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowInflation rose more than expected in August as rising shelter and food costs offset a drop in gas prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021. Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. Treasury yields leaped higher, as the 2-year note, which is most closely tied to Federal Reserve interest rate moves, surged 0.13 percentage point to 3.704%. Markets had been widely expecting the Fed to enact a 0.75 percentage point rate increase at its meeting next week.

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